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Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton Talbott | Vertex MMA
Bout· Co-main · Bantamweight · 5 rounds
October 3, 2026 · Salt Lake City
Vertex Simulation v0.14.0 82% Payton Talbott vs Deiveson Figueiredo · 18.0%
High confidence
-0.3% vs market (82.3%)
Why the model thinks so Age gap +11 yr favors Payton Talbott Vertex Score gap -13 favors Payton Talbott
Vertex Sportsbook Bet at our model's odds
Winner market 5.40 / 1.16 Deiveson Figueiredo 5.35 model 18% Payton Talbott 1.17 model 82%
Method Deiveson Figueiredo by KO/TKO22.42 model 4% Deiveson Figueiredo by submission15.71 model 6% Deiveson Figueiredo by decision11.65 model 8% Payton Talbott by KO/TKO2.26 model 41% Payton Talbott by submission18.66 model 5% Payton Talbott by decision2.57 model 36%
Total rounds Over 2.5 1.51 model 61% Under 2.5 2.40 model 39%
Goes the distance Yes 2.10 model 44% No 1.65 model 56%
Sign in to bet Odds come from the Vertex model and lock when you bet. Payout = stake × odds. Winners are paid once the result is in; draws and no-contests are refunded.
V ERTEX MMA
UFC scores, community rankings, virtual coin betting. Virtual currency has no monetary value. © 2026.
Age curve advantage
LightGBM model trained on historical UFC bouts with isotonic calibration. Reflects statistical baseline only — not a betting recommendation.
How it might end (10,000 simulations) Avg finish: 7:55 Most likely: Decision round — (44%)
KO/TKO · 45% · 4/41 Submission · 11% · 6/5 Decision · 44% · 8/36
Deiveson Figueiredo / Payton Talbott
5%
