Vertex MMA · Model
Simulation
Calibrated winner probabilities, top driving features, and Monte Carlo round-by-round distributions for every scheduled UFC bout.
Model v0.5.0
56
scheduled bouts
Upcoming events
7
High-confidence picks
20
Edges vs market
12
Recent accuracy
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- BantamweightMain event
Song Yadong84%vsDeiveson Figueiredo16%
84%Song YadongHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Song Yadong (70%)Open - Heavyweight
Sergei Pavlovich80%vsTallison Teixeira20%
80%Sergei PavlovichHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Sergei Pavlovich (80%)Open - Strawweight
Loma Lookboonmee45%vsJaqueline Amorim55%
55%Jaqueline AmorimLow confidenceMost likely: Decision for Jaqueline Amorim (55%)Open - Flyweight
Rei Tsuruya73%vsJesus Aguilar27%
73%Rei TsuruyaHigh confidenceMost likely: Decision for Rei Tsuruya (59%)Open - Bantamweight
Kai Asakura61%vsCameron Smotherman39%
61%Kai AsakuraMedium confidenceMarket disagreesMost likely: Decision for Kai Asakura (61%)Open - Bantamweight
Aoriqileng24%vsCody Haddon76%
76%Cody HaddonHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Cody Haddon (45%)Open - Welterweight
Muslim Salikhov32%vsJake Matthews68%
68%Jake MatthewsHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Jake Matthews (41%)Open - Flyweight
Alex Perez48%vsSumudaerji52%
52%SumudaerjiLow confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: Submission for Alex Perez (44%)Open - Light Heavyweight
Zhang Mingyang79%vsAlonzo Menifield21%
79%Zhang MingyangHigh confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: KO/TKO for Zhang Mingyang (79%)Open
- WelterweightMain event
Belal Muhammad54%vsGabriel Bonfim46%
54%Belal MuhammadLow confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Belal Muhammad (48%)Open - Lightweight
Fares Ziam74%vsTom Nolan26%
74%Fares ZiamHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Fares Ziam (72%)Open - Bantamweight
Marcus McGhee49%vsJakub Wiklacz51%
51%Jakub WiklaczLow confidenceMost likely: Decision for Jakub Wiklacz (51%)Open - Flyweight
Imanol Rodriguez89%vsMatt Schnell11%
89%Imanol RodriguezHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Imanol Rodriguez (81%)Open - Middleweight
Brendan Allen64%vsEdmen Shahbazyan36%
64%Brendan AllenMedium confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Edmen Shahbazyan (36%)Open - Light Heavyweight
Iwo Baraniewski39%vsBilly Elekana61%
61%Billy ElekanaMedium confidenceMost likely: Submission for Iwo Baraniewski (31%)Open - Featherweight
Jordan Leavitt49%vsJoanderson Brito51%
51%Joanderson BritoLow confidenceMarket disagreesMost likely: Submission for Joanderson Brito (51%)Open - Flyweight
Bruno Silva48%vsEdgar Chairez52%
52%Edgar ChairezLow confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: KO/TKO for Edgar Chairez (52%)Open - Bantamweight
Priscila Cachoeira17%vsChelsea Chandler83%
83%Chelsea ChandlerHigh confidenceMarket disagreesMost likely: Decision for Chelsea Chandler (46%)Open - Strawweight
Ketlen Souza70%vsAriane Carnelossi30%
70%Ketlen SouzaHigh confidenceMost likely: Submission for Ariane Carnelossi (29%)Open - Bantamweight
Bryce Mitchell78%vsVictor Henry22%
78%Bryce MitchellHigh confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: Submission for Bryce Mitchell (55%)Open
- LightweightMain eventTitle fight
Ilia Topuria89%vsJustin Gaethje11%
89%Ilia TopuriaHigh confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: KO/TKO for Ilia Topuria (58%)Open - HeavyweightTitle fight
Alex Pereira55%vsCiryl Gane45%
55%Alex PereiraLow confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Alex Pereira (40%)Open - Bantamweight
Sean O'Malley84%vsAiemann Zahabi16%
84%Sean O'MalleyHigh confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: KO/TKO for Sean O'Malley (84%)Open - Featherweight
Diego Lopes54%vsSteve Garcia46%
54%Diego LopesLow confidenceMarket disagreesMost likely: KO/TKO for Diego Lopes (54%)Open - Middleweight
Bo Nickal75%vsKyle Daukaus25%
75%Bo NickalHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Bo Nickal (75%)Open - Lightweight
Mauricio Ruffy85%vsMichael Chandler15%
85%Mauricio RuffyHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Mauricio Ruffy (79%)Open - Heavyweight
Josh Hokit76%vsDerrick Lewis24%
76%Josh HokitHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Josh Hokit (70%)Open
- FlyweightMain event
Manel Kape61%vsKyoji Horiguchi39%
61%Manel KapeMedium confidenceMost likely: Submission for Manel Kape (61%)Open - Flyweight
Andre Lima69%vsKevin Borjas31%
69%Andre LimaHigh confidenceMost likely: Decision for Andre Lima (37%)Open - Flyweight
Allan Nascimento55%vsMitch Raposo45%
55%Allan NascimentoLow confidenceMost likely: Decision for Allan Nascimento (55%)Open - Bantamweight
Bia Mesquita66%vsMelissa Mullins34%
66%Bia MesquitaMedium confidenceMost likely: Decision for Bia Mesquita (40%)Open - Featherweight
Hyder Amil39%vsChristian Rodriguez61%
61%Christian RodriguezMedium confidenceMost likely: Submission for Hyder Amil (39%)Open - Light Heavyweight
Ion Cutelaba35%vsNavajo Stirling65%
65%Navajo StirlingMedium confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Navajo Stirling (50%)Open
- LightweightMain event
Rafael Fiziev38%vsManuel Torres62%
62%Manuel TorresMedium confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Manuel Torres (62%)Open - Welterweight
Daniil Donchenko65%vsAndreas Gustafsson35%
65%Daniil DonchenkoMedium confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Daniil Donchenko (65%)Open - Light HeavyweightAbdul Rakhman Yakhyaev64%vsJulius Walker36%
64%Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevMedium confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (52%)Open - Flyweight
Asu Almabayev66%vsCharles Johnson34%
66%Asu AlmabayevMedium confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Asu Almabayev (34%)Open - Middleweight
Abus Magomedov41%vsMichal Oleksiejczuk59%
59%Michal OleksiejczukMedium confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Michal Oleksiejczuk (49%)Open - Middleweight
Ismail Naurdiev49%vsMarvin Vettori51%
51%Marvin VettoriLow confidenceMost likely: Decision for Marvin Vettori (51%)Open - Lightweight
Nazim Sadykhov43%vsMatheus Camilo57%
57%Matheus CamiloLow confidenceMost likely: Submission for Nazim Sadykhov (43%)Open - Middleweight
Shara Magomedov54%vsMichel Pereira46%
54%Shara MagomedovLow confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Shara Magomedov (54%)Open - Middleweight
Ikram Aliskerov60%vsBrunno Ferreira40%
60%Ikram AliskerovMedium confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Ikram Aliskerov (54%)Open - Middleweight
Nursulton Ruziboev45%vsAndrey Pulyaev55%
55%Andrey PulyaevLow confidenceMost likely: Decision for Andrey Pulyaev (55%)Open - Bantamweight
Bekzat Almakhan36%vsJean Matsumoto64%
64%Jean MatsumotoMedium confidenceMost likely: Decision for Jean Matsumoto (64%)Open
- WelterweightMain event
Conor McGregor21%vsMax Holloway79%
79%Max HollowayHigh confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: KO/TKO for Max Holloway (51%)Open - Middleweight
Damian Pinas69%vsCesar Almeida31%
69%Damian PinasHigh confidenceMost likely: Decision for Damian Pinas (69%)Open - Lightweight
Benoit Saint Denis72%vsPaddy Pimblett28%
72%Benoit Saint DenisHigh confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: Decision for Benoit Saint Denis (72%)Open - Flyweight
Brandon Royval39%vsLone'er Kavanagh61%
61%Lone'er KavanaghMedium confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Brandon Royval (39%)Open - Bantamweight
Cody Garbrandt58%vsAdrian Yanez42%
58%Cody GarbrandtMedium confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Cody Garbrandt (56%)Open - Featherweight
Luke Riley59%vsKai Kamaka III41%
59%Luke RileyMedium confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Luke Riley (59%)Open - Flyweight
Ode Osbourne51%vsCody Durden49%
51%Ode OsbourneLow confidenceMost likely: Submission for Cody Durden (31%)Open - Light Heavyweight
Robert Whittaker48%vsNikita Krylov52%
52%Nikita KrylovLow confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Robert Whittaker (38%)Open - Bantamweight
Cory Sandhagen60%vsMario Bautista40%
60%Cory SandhagenMedium confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Cory Sandhagen (35%)Open - Flyweight
Tracy Cortez45%vsWang Cong55%
55%Wang CongLow confidenceMost likely: Submission for Wang Cong (55%)Open - Middleweight
Ryan Gandra61%vsZach Reese39%
61%Ryan GandraMedium confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Ryan Gandra (61%)Open
Predictions come from a LightGBM + XGBoost + LogReg ensemble trained on every historical UFC bout with isotonic-style calibration, plus a 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulator for the per-round distribution. Reflects statistical baseline only — not a betting recommendation.