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Marc-Andre Barriault vs Kyle Daukaus | Vertex MMA
Bout· Middleweight · 3 rounds
October 17, 2026 · Edmonton
Vertex Simulation v0.14.0 73% Kyle Daukaus vs Marc-Andre Barriault · 27.2%
Why the model thinks so Age gap +3 yr favors Kyle Daukaus Strikes absorbed gap +2.70/min favors Kyle Daukaus
Vertex Sportsbook Bet at our model's odds
Winner Marc-Andre Barriault 3.54 model 27% Kyle Daukaus 1.32 model 73%
Method Marc-Andre Barriault by KO/TKO6.21 model 15% Marc-Andre Barriault by submission25.00 model 2% Marc-Andre Barriault by decision8.65 model 11% Kyle Daukaus by KO/TKO6.60 model 14% Kyle Daukaus by submission2.77 model 33% Kyle Daukaus by decision3.65 model 25%
Total rounds Over 2.5 1.95 model 48% Under 2.5 1.77 model 52%
Goes the distance Yes 2.57 model 36% No 1.45 model 64%
Sign in to bet Odds come from the Vertex model and lock when you bet. Payout = stake × odds. Winners are paid once the result is in; draws and no-contests are refunded.
V ERTEX MMA
UFC scores, community rankings, virtual coin betting. Virtual currency has no monetary value. © 2026.
Age curve advantage
LightGBM model trained on historical UFC bouts with isotonic calibration. Reflects statistical baseline only — not a betting recommendation.
How it might end (10,000 simulations) Avg finish: 5:40 Most likely: Decision round — (36%)
KO/TKO · 29% · 15/14 Submission · 35% · 2/33 Decision · 36% · 11/25
Marc-Andre Barriault / Kyle Daukaus
36%
