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Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy | Vertex MMA
Bout· Co-main · Lightweight · 3 rounds
September 19, 2026 · Los Angeles
Vertex Simulation v0.14.0 75% Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy · 25.4%
High confidence
+1.8% vs market (72.8%)
Why the model thinks so Vertex Score gap +33 favors Arman Tsarukyan Height gap -10 cm favors Mauricio Ruffy Vertex Sportsbook Bet at our model's odds
Winner market 1.33 / 3.55 Arman Tsarukyan 1.29 model 75% Mauricio Ruffy 3.78 model 25%
Method Arman Tsarukyan by KO/TKO5.07 model 18% Arman Tsarukyan by submission5.49 model 17% Arman Tsarukyan by decision2.35 model 39% Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO6.64 model 14% Mauricio Ruffy by submission25.00 model 1% Mauricio Ruffy by decision8.82 model 10%
Total rounds Over 2.5 1.55 model 60% Under 2.5 2.29 model 40%
Goes the distance Yes 1.85 model 50% No 1.85 model 50%
Sign in to bet Odds come from the Vertex model and lock when you bet. Payout = stake × odds. Winners are paid once the result is in; draws and no-contests are refunded.
V ERTEX MMA
UFC scores, community rankings, virtual coin betting. Virtual currency has no monetary value. © 2026.
Takedown accuracy gap +38% favors Arman Tsarukyan LightGBM model trained on historical UFC bouts with isotonic calibration. Reflects statistical baseline only — not a betting recommendation.
How it might end (10,000 simulations) Avg finish: 5:56 Most likely: Decision round — (50%)
KO/TKO · 32% · 18/14 Submission · 18% · 17/1 Decision · 50% · 39/10
Arman Tsarukyan / Mauricio Ruffy
50%
