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Adrian Yanez vs Juan Diaz | Vertex MMA
Bout· Bantamweight · 3 rounds
November 14, 2026
Vertex Simulation v0.14.0 68% Juan Diaz vs Adrian Yanez · 32.3%
Why the model thinks so Age gap +5 yr favors Juan Diaz Takedown rate gap -8.21/15 favors Juan Diaz
Vertex Sportsbook Bet at our model's odds
Winner Adrian Yanez 2.97 model 32% Juan Diaz 1.42 model 68%
Method Adrian Yanez by KO/TKO5.70 model 16% Adrian Yanez by submission25.00 model 2% Adrian Yanez by decision6.69 model 14% Juan Diaz by KO/TKO5.42 model 17% Juan Diaz by submission6.60 model 14% Juan Diaz by decision2.53 model 37%
Total rounds Over 2.5 1.57 model 59% Under 2.5 2.25 model 41%
Goes the distance Yes 1.84 model 50% No 1.87 model 50%
Sign in to bet Odds come from the Vertex model and lock when you bet. Payout = stake × odds. Winners are paid once the result is in; draws and no-contests are refunded.
V ERTEX MMA
UFC scores, community rankings, virtual coin betting. Virtual currency has no monetary value. © 2026.
Strikes absorbed gap
+3.58/min
LightGBM model trained on historical UFC bouts with isotonic calibration. Reflects statistical baseline only — not a betting recommendation.
How it might end (10,000 simulations) Avg finish: 5:40 Most likely: Decision round — (50%)
KO/TKO · 33% · 16/17 Submission · 16% · 2/14 Decision · 50% · 14/37
Adrian Yanez / Juan Diaz
50%
