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Melissa Croden vs Chelsea Chandler | Vertex MMA
Bout· Bantamweight · 3 rounds
October 17, 2026 · Edmonton
Vertex Simulation v0.14.0 71% Melissa Croden vs Chelsea Chandler · 28.8%
Why the model thinks so Vertex Score gap +17 favors Melissa Croden Career win-rate gap +17% favors Melissa Croden
Vertex Sportsbook Bet at our model's odds
Winner Melissa Croden 1.35 model 71% Chelsea Chandler 3.34 model 29%
Method Melissa Croden by KO/TKO4.67 model 20% Melissa Croden by submission12.16 model 8% Melissa Croden by decision2.11 model 44% Chelsea Chandler by KO/TKO17.07 model 5% Chelsea Chandler by submission23.96 model 4% Chelsea Chandler by decision4.75 model 19%
Total rounds Over 2.5 1.31 model 70% Under 2.5 3.14 model 30%
Goes the distance Yes 1.46 model 63% No 2.52 model 37%
Sign in to bet Odds come from the Vertex model and lock when you bet. Payout = stake × odds. Winners are paid once the result is in; draws and no-contests are refunded.
V ERTEX MMA
UFC scores, community rankings, virtual coin betting. Virtual currency has no monetary value. © 2026.
Finishing-defense gap -17%
LightGBM model trained on historical UFC bouts with isotonic calibration. Reflects statistical baseline only — not a betting recommendation.
How it might end (10,000 simulations) Avg finish: 6:02 Most likely: Decision round — (63%)
KO/TKO · 25% · 20/5 Submission · 11% · 8/4 Decision · 63% · 44/19
Melissa Croden / Chelsea Chandler
63%
