Vertex MMA · Model
Simulation
Calibrated winner probabilities, top driving features, and Monte Carlo round-by-round distributions for every scheduled UFC bout.
Model v0.5.0
56
scheduled bouts
Upcoming events
7
High-confidence picks
20
Edges vs market
12
Recent accuracy
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- Bantamweight
Kai Asakura61%vsCameron Smotherman39%
61%Kai AsakuraMedium confidenceMarket disagreesMost likely: Decision for Kai Asakura (61%)Open - Flyweight
Alex Perez48%vsSumudaerji52%
52%SumudaerjiLow confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: Submission for Alex Perez (44%)Open - Light Heavyweight
Zhang Mingyang79%vsAlonzo Menifield21%
79%Zhang MingyangHigh confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: KO/TKO for Zhang Mingyang (79%)Open
- Featherweight
Jordan Leavitt49%vsJoanderson Brito51%
51%Joanderson BritoLow confidenceMarket disagreesMost likely: Submission for Joanderson Brito (51%)Open - Flyweight
Bruno Silva48%vsEdgar Chairez52%
52%Edgar ChairezLow confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: KO/TKO for Edgar Chairez (52%)Open - Bantamweight
Priscila Cachoeira17%vsChelsea Chandler83%
83%Chelsea ChandlerHigh confidenceMarket disagreesMost likely: Decision for Chelsea Chandler (46%)Open - Bantamweight
Bryce Mitchell78%vsVictor Henry22%
78%Bryce MitchellHigh confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: Submission for Bryce Mitchell (55%)Open
- LightweightMain eventTitle fight
Ilia Topuria89%vsJustin Gaethje11%
89%Ilia TopuriaHigh confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: KO/TKO for Ilia Topuria (58%)Open - Bantamweight
Sean O'Malley84%vsAiemann Zahabi16%
84%Sean O'MalleyHigh confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: KO/TKO for Sean O'Malley (84%)Open - Featherweight
Diego Lopes54%vsSteve Garcia46%
54%Diego LopesLow confidenceMarket disagreesMost likely: KO/TKO for Diego Lopes (54%)Open
- WelterweightMain event
Conor McGregor21%vsMax Holloway79%
79%Max HollowayHigh confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: KO/TKO for Max Holloway (51%)Open - Lightweight
Benoit Saint Denis72%vsPaddy Pimblett28%
72%Benoit Saint DenisHigh confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: Decision for Benoit Saint Denis (72%)Open
Predictions come from a LightGBM + XGBoost + LogReg ensemble trained on every historical UFC bout with isotonic-style calibration, plus a 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulator for the per-round distribution. Reflects statistical baseline only — not a betting recommendation.