Vertex MMA · Model
Simulation
Calibrated winner probabilities, top driving features, and Monte Carlo round-by-round distributions for every scheduled UFC bout.
Model v0.5.0
56
scheduled bouts
Upcoming events
7
High-confidence picks
20
Edges vs market
12
Recent accuracy
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- BantamweightMain event
Song Yadong84%vsDeiveson Figueiredo16%
84%Song YadongHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Song Yadong (70%)Open - Heavyweight
Sergei Pavlovich80%vsTallison Teixeira20%
80%Sergei PavlovichHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Sergei Pavlovich (80%)Open - Flyweight
Rei Tsuruya73%vsJesus Aguilar27%
73%Rei TsuruyaHigh confidenceMost likely: Decision for Rei Tsuruya (59%)Open - Bantamweight
Kai Asakura61%vsCameron Smotherman39%
61%Kai AsakuraMedium confidenceMarket disagreesMost likely: Decision for Kai Asakura (61%)Open - Bantamweight
Aoriqileng24%vsCody Haddon76%
76%Cody HaddonHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Cody Haddon (45%)Open - Welterweight
Muslim Salikhov32%vsJake Matthews68%
68%Jake MatthewsHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Jake Matthews (41%)Open - Light Heavyweight
Zhang Mingyang79%vsAlonzo Menifield21%
79%Zhang MingyangHigh confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: KO/TKO for Zhang Mingyang (79%)Open
- Lightweight
Fares Ziam74%vsTom Nolan26%
74%Fares ZiamHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Fares Ziam (72%)Open - Flyweight
Imanol Rodriguez89%vsMatt Schnell11%
89%Imanol RodriguezHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Imanol Rodriguez (81%)Open - Middleweight
Brendan Allen64%vsEdmen Shahbazyan36%
64%Brendan AllenMedium confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Edmen Shahbazyan (36%)Open - Light Heavyweight
Iwo Baraniewski39%vsBilly Elekana61%
61%Billy ElekanaMedium confidenceMost likely: Submission for Iwo Baraniewski (31%)Open - Bantamweight
Priscila Cachoeira17%vsChelsea Chandler83%
83%Chelsea ChandlerHigh confidenceMarket disagreesMost likely: Decision for Chelsea Chandler (46%)Open - Strawweight
Ketlen Souza70%vsAriane Carnelossi30%
70%Ketlen SouzaHigh confidenceMost likely: Submission for Ariane Carnelossi (29%)Open - Bantamweight
Bryce Mitchell78%vsVictor Henry22%
78%Bryce MitchellHigh confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: Submission for Bryce Mitchell (55%)Open
- LightweightMain eventTitle fight
Ilia Topuria89%vsJustin Gaethje11%
89%Ilia TopuriaHigh confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: KO/TKO for Ilia Topuria (58%)Open - Bantamweight
Sean O'Malley84%vsAiemann Zahabi16%
84%Sean O'MalleyHigh confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: KO/TKO for Sean O'Malley (84%)Open - Middleweight
Bo Nickal75%vsKyle Daukaus25%
75%Bo NickalHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Bo Nickal (75%)Open - Lightweight
Mauricio Ruffy85%vsMichael Chandler15%
85%Mauricio RuffyHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Mauricio Ruffy (79%)Open - Heavyweight
Josh Hokit76%vsDerrick Lewis24%
76%Josh HokitHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Josh Hokit (70%)Open
- FlyweightMain event
Manel Kape61%vsKyoji Horiguchi39%
61%Manel KapeMedium confidenceMost likely: Submission for Manel Kape (61%)Open - Flyweight
Andre Lima69%vsKevin Borjas31%
69%Andre LimaHigh confidenceMost likely: Decision for Andre Lima (37%)Open - Bantamweight
Bia Mesquita66%vsMelissa Mullins34%
66%Bia MesquitaMedium confidenceMost likely: Decision for Bia Mesquita (40%)Open - Featherweight
Hyder Amil39%vsChristian Rodriguez61%
61%Christian RodriguezMedium confidenceMost likely: Submission for Hyder Amil (39%)Open - Light Heavyweight
Ion Cutelaba35%vsNavajo Stirling65%
65%Navajo StirlingMedium confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Navajo Stirling (50%)Open
- LightweightMain event
Rafael Fiziev38%vsManuel Torres62%
62%Manuel TorresMedium confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Manuel Torres (62%)Open - Welterweight
Daniil Donchenko65%vsAndreas Gustafsson35%
65%Daniil DonchenkoMedium confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Daniil Donchenko (65%)Open - Light HeavyweightAbdul Rakhman Yakhyaev64%vsJulius Walker36%
64%Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevMedium confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (52%)Open - Flyweight
Asu Almabayev66%vsCharles Johnson34%
66%Asu AlmabayevMedium confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Asu Almabayev (34%)Open - Middleweight
Abus Magomedov41%vsMichal Oleksiejczuk59%
59%Michal OleksiejczukMedium confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Michal Oleksiejczuk (49%)Open - Middleweight
Ikram Aliskerov60%vsBrunno Ferreira40%
60%Ikram AliskerovMedium confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Ikram Aliskerov (54%)Open - Bantamweight
Bekzat Almakhan36%vsJean Matsumoto64%
64%Jean MatsumotoMedium confidenceMost likely: Decision for Jean Matsumoto (64%)Open
- WelterweightMain event
Conor McGregor21%vsMax Holloway79%
79%Max HollowayHigh confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: KO/TKO for Max Holloway (51%)Open - Middleweight
Damian Pinas69%vsCesar Almeida31%
69%Damian PinasHigh confidenceMost likely: Decision for Damian Pinas (69%)Open - Lightweight
Benoit Saint Denis72%vsPaddy Pimblett28%
72%Benoit Saint DenisHigh confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: Decision for Benoit Saint Denis (72%)Open - Flyweight
Brandon Royval39%vsLone'er Kavanagh61%
61%Lone'er KavanaghMedium confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Brandon Royval (39%)Open - Bantamweight
Cody Garbrandt58%vsAdrian Yanez42%
58%Cody GarbrandtMedium confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Cody Garbrandt (56%)Open - Featherweight
Luke Riley59%vsKai Kamaka III41%
59%Luke RileyMedium confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Luke Riley (59%)Open - Bantamweight
Cory Sandhagen60%vsMario Bautista40%
60%Cory SandhagenMedium confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Cory Sandhagen (35%)Open - Middleweight
Ryan Gandra61%vsZach Reese39%
61%Ryan GandraMedium confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Ryan Gandra (61%)Open
Predictions come from a LightGBM + XGBoost + LogReg ensemble trained on every historical UFC bout with isotonic-style calibration, plus a 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulator for the per-round distribution. Reflects statistical baseline only — not a betting recommendation.