Vertex MMA · Model
Simulation
Calibrated winner probabilities, top driving features, and Monte Carlo round-by-round distributions for every scheduled UFC bout.
Model v0.5.0
56
scheduled bouts
Upcoming events
7
High-confidence picks
20
Edges vs market
12
Recent accuracy
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- BantamweightMain event
Song Yadong84%vsDeiveson Figueiredo16%
84%Song YadongHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Song Yadong (70%)Open - Heavyweight
Sergei Pavlovich80%vsTallison Teixeira20%
80%Sergei PavlovichHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Sergei Pavlovich (80%)Open - Flyweight
Rei Tsuruya73%vsJesus Aguilar27%
73%Rei TsuruyaHigh confidenceMost likely: Decision for Rei Tsuruya (59%)Open - Bantamweight
Aoriqileng24%vsCody Haddon76%
76%Cody HaddonHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Cody Haddon (45%)Open - Welterweight
Muslim Salikhov32%vsJake Matthews68%
68%Jake MatthewsHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Jake Matthews (41%)Open - Light Heavyweight
Zhang Mingyang79%vsAlonzo Menifield21%
79%Zhang MingyangHigh confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: KO/TKO for Zhang Mingyang (79%)Open
- Lightweight
Fares Ziam74%vsTom Nolan26%
74%Fares ZiamHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Fares Ziam (72%)Open - Flyweight
Imanol Rodriguez89%vsMatt Schnell11%
89%Imanol RodriguezHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Imanol Rodriguez (81%)Open - Bantamweight
Priscila Cachoeira17%vsChelsea Chandler83%
83%Chelsea ChandlerHigh confidenceMarket disagreesMost likely: Decision for Chelsea Chandler (46%)Open - Strawweight
Ketlen Souza70%vsAriane Carnelossi30%
70%Ketlen SouzaHigh confidenceMost likely: Submission for Ariane Carnelossi (29%)Open - Bantamweight
Bryce Mitchell78%vsVictor Henry22%
78%Bryce MitchellHigh confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: Submission for Bryce Mitchell (55%)Open
- LightweightMain eventTitle fight
Ilia Topuria89%vsJustin Gaethje11%
89%Ilia TopuriaHigh confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: KO/TKO for Ilia Topuria (58%)Open - Bantamweight
Sean O'Malley84%vsAiemann Zahabi16%
84%Sean O'MalleyHigh confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: KO/TKO for Sean O'Malley (84%)Open - Middleweight
Bo Nickal75%vsKyle Daukaus25%
75%Bo NickalHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Bo Nickal (75%)Open - Lightweight
Mauricio Ruffy85%vsMichael Chandler15%
85%Mauricio RuffyHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Mauricio Ruffy (79%)Open - Heavyweight
Josh Hokit76%vsDerrick Lewis24%
76%Josh HokitHigh confidenceMost likely: KO/TKO for Josh Hokit (70%)Open
- WelterweightMain event
Conor McGregor21%vsMax Holloway79%
79%Max HollowayHigh confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: KO/TKO for Max Holloway (51%)Open - Middleweight
Damian Pinas69%vsCesar Almeida31%
69%Damian PinasHigh confidenceMost likely: Decision for Damian Pinas (69%)Open - Lightweight
Benoit Saint Denis72%vsPaddy Pimblett28%
72%Benoit Saint DenisHigh confidenceModel sees valueMost likely: Decision for Benoit Saint Denis (72%)Open
Predictions come from a LightGBM + XGBoost + LogReg ensemble trained on every historical UFC bout with isotonic-style calibration, plus a 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulator for the per-round distribution. Reflects statistical baseline only — not a betting recommendation.